How do I decide whether to keep a player in fantasy basketball?

Compare what he is worth with what the pick is worth. If he ranks 15th overall and keeping him costs a fourth-round pick, you are getting roughly three rounds of value for free. If he ranks 60th and costs a third-rounder, you are overpaying and should take the pick instead.

What is a keeper worth in fantasy basketball?

A keeper is worth the difference between the player's real rank and the rank you would typically draft with that pick. In a 12-team league a third-round pick lands somebody around 30th overall, so any player better than that is profit.

Should I keep a star player in an early round?

Often no. Keeping a top-five player at the cost of a first-round pick gains you almost nothing, because you would have drafted someone of similar value anyway. Keepers pay off most in the middle rounds, where a breakout player costs far less than he is worth.

Does league size change keeper value?

Yes, substantially. In an 8-team league a fifth-round pick is worth about the 36th player; in a 14-team league the same pick is worth about the 63rd. The same keeper can be a bargain in one league and a mistake in another, which is why league size is part of the calculation here.

Fantasy Basketball Keeper Calculator — Should I Keep Him?

League size

Your keepers — player and the round he costs

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How keeper value actually works

A keeper isn't worth "a lot" or "a little" in the abstract. It's worth exactly the gap between what the player is and what the pick would have been.

In a 12-team league, a third-round pick lands you somebody around 30th overall. Keep a player who ranks 12th at that price and you have gained about a round and a half of value. Keep a player who ranks 45th at the same price and you have lost value — you'd have done better drafting.

This is why keeping superstars early is usually a bad deal. Holding the second-best player in the league at the cost of a first-round pick gains you almost nothing, because your first-round pick was going to be a very good player anyway. Keepers pay in the middle rounds, where last season's breakout still costs a tenth-rounder.

Why league size changes everything

The same keeper can be a bargain and a mistake depending on how many teams are in the league. An eighth-round pick in an 8-team league is worth roughly the 60th player; in a 14-team league it's worth roughly the 105th. Same round, very different player.

That's why league size is the first thing this tool asks for, and why keeper advice that ignores it's not really advice.

What this doesn't account for

Rankings here come from last season's per-game production. They don't know that a player changed teams in July, that a rookie is about to take his minutes, or that he is 34 and slowing down. For dynasty formats especially, age and role matter as much as last season's line.

Treat the number as the starting point of the argument, not the end of it. If you want a version that also knows your roster's category needs, that's what Ash does in Discord.

Common questions

How do I decide whether to keep a player?

Compare his rank with what the pick is worth. Better than the pick means profit; worse means take the pick.

Should I keep a star in an early round?

Usually not. The gain is small because your early pick would already have been a strong player.

Does league size matter?

Enormously. The same round is worth a very different player in an 8-team league than in a 14-team one.

Keeper calculator

Verdicts